Knights to Cause Upset in NRL Semi-Final?

Emma de Groot · 2026-09-16

### The Underdogs Are Barking New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights in an NRL semi-final. Sounds like a mismatch on paper, right? The Warriors have been the feel-good story of the season. The Knights? They've been up and down. But here's the thing: finals footy doesn't care about paper. Newcastle is heading across the Tasman with nothing to lose. They've got momentum, a chip on their shoulder, and a point to prove. The Warriors, meanwhile, are carrying the weight of a nation. That pressure can do funny things to a team. ### Why the Knights Can Pull This Off Let's break it down. The Knights have won three of their last four, and their defense has tightened up at the right time. They're not flashy, but they're gritty. And in knockout football, grit beats glamour more often than you'd think. - **Defense wins finals:** Newcastle has conceded fewer than 18 points in three of their last four games. - **Halves stepping up:** Their playmakers are finally clicking, creating chances when it matters. - **Nothing to lose:** All the expectation is on the Warriors. The Knights can play free. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been brilliant at home, but their recent finals record is shaky. They've lost their last two semi-finals. That's not a stat you want hanging over your head. ### The Warrior Worry Look, I love what the Warriors have done this year. Andrew Webster has done a phenomenal job. But finals are a different beast. The pace is faster, the hits are harder, and every mistake gets magnified. Their star playmaker has been carrying a calf niggle. If he's not at 100%, the Knights will target him all night. And their forward pack, while impressive, can be worn down by a patient opponent. ### The X-Factor Here's something you won't hear on the mainstream shows: the Knights' bench is seriously underrated. Their impact players have been changing games in the second half. If they can keep it close until the 60th minute, watch out. > "Finals aren't about who's the best team on paper. They're about who wants it more when the whistle blows." – Anonymous NRL veteran That quote sums it up perfectly. The Knights want it. You can see it in their body language. ### My Prediction I'm not saying it's a lock. But the value is with Newcastle. The odds are stacked against them, which makes them dangerous. A team with nothing to lose is a scary thing. Knights to win by 4. Or at least cover the spread. Either way, don't be shocked if the underdogs have their day. ### Final Thought Finals football is unpredictable. That's why we love it. The Warriors have the fairy tale, but the Knights have the hunger. And sometimes, hunger wins.